Monthly bottom-line report · break-even first. REAL = budget file, L10 sheet, deck, tracker. EST / hatched = ESTIMATE, calibrated to the August loss (−$100K on ~$1.08M at 57.5% GM, CB basis, per Isaac); replace with Crystal's P&L-by-store file. Sep 25 update: real Aug ad spend by line, 3PL as one monthly bill ($77K → $60K target), salary cuts and the ETS/NLE/LED sale in §0 Scenarios. Realistic revenue = Isaac's run-rates (Flag, Amazon $210K, wholesale $175K) and Aug/Sep pace; editable in the calculator below and in breakeven-model.xlsx.

OnlineStores Monthly — Break-even · Oct · Nov · Dec 2026

Four business lines: Flag web · Safety Gear web · Amazon (all stores) · Wholesale (all stores) · plus ETS/NLE/LED/Walmart

Profit at realistic revenueOct −$99KNov −$91KDec −$91K (EST)With cost plan (B)Oct −$1KNov $7KDec $7K (EST)Break-even revenue$1,415K/mo vs realistic $1,086K (EST)GM needed at realistic rev66.1% vs 57.0%Actions23 overdue

Aug: ~$1.1M sales, ~57–58% GM, lost just under $100K (Isaac).
Mid-month meeting · Isaac · Crystal · leadership

0 · Scenarios: can the cost plan close the gap?

Sep 25 update (Isaac): ad reconciliation · 3PL $77K→$60K · salary cuts · sell ETS/NLE/LED? · EST until Crystal's P&L-by-store file

Company by scenario, per month

EST

$ per month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Q4
A · Base · current run-rate, no changes
Revenue	$1,086K	$1,118K	$1,118K	$3,322K
Contribution	$326K	$334K	$334K	$995K
Fixed costs	$425K	$425K	$425K	$1,276K
Net profit	−$99K	−$91K	−$91K	−$281K
Break-even revenue	$1,415K	$1,421K	$1,421K
Gap to 5% profit goal	short $153K	short $147K	short $147K	short $447K
B · Cost plan · net salary cuts $62K/mo + 3PL $77K→$60K + levers (shipping, mix, SG ad cut)
Revenue	$1,078K	$1,110K	$1,110K	$3,298K
Contribution	$345K	$353K	$353K	$1,051K
Fixed costs	$346K	$346K	$346K	$1,038K
Net profit	−$1K	$7K	$7K	$14K
Break-even revenue	$1,081K	$1,087K	$1,087K
Gap to 5% profit goal	short $55K	short $48K	short $48K	short $151K
C1 · Cost plan + sell ETS/NLE/LED, $0 overhead removed · B, minus ETS/NLE/LED contribution and direct fixed; shared overhead stays
Revenue	$943K	$974K	$974K	$2,891K
Contribution	$279K	$287K	$287K	$852K
Fixed costs	$332K	$332K	$332K	$997K
Net profit	−$54K	−$46K	−$46K	−$145K
Break-even revenue	$1,125K	$1,129K	$1,129K
Gap to 5% profit goal	short $101K	short $94K	short $94K	short $290K
C2 · Cost plan + sell, their shared fixed removed · B, sold lines plus $33K/mo of shared 3PL/overhead removed (upper bound)
Revenue	$943K	$974K	$974K	$2,891K
Contribution	$279K	$287K	$287K	$852K
Fixed costs	$299K	$299K	$299K	$898K
Net profit	−$21K	−$13K	−$13K	−$46K
Break-even revenue	$1,013K	$1,017K	$1,017K
Gap to 5% profit goal	short $68K	short $61K	short $61K	short $190K
D · Cost plan + Flag growth · B + Flag PPC to $120K (+$51K/mo at marginal ROAS 2.5), +$10 AOV, +1 pt GM
Revenue	$1,247K	$1,278K	$1,278K	$3,803K
Contribution	$381K	$389K	$389K	$1,159K
Fixed costs	$346K	$346K	$346K	$1,038K
Net profit	$35K	$43K	$43K	$122K
Break-even revenue	$1,132K	$1,136K	$1,136K
Gap to 5% profit goal	short $27K	short $21K	short $21K	short $68K

Net profit by scenario vs 5% goal

Ad reconciliation (Aug). The previous model implied $123K of Aug ad spend across all lines. Isaac's “~$66K vs $120K goal” matches USF/Flag Google+Bing PPC: $69K actual (Total Ad Spend sheet) vs the $120,000 Aug Flag PPC line in Crystal's budget. Real Aug spend across all lines was $118K (web $109K excl. Klaviyo, Amazon ~$10K EST), so ads were not cut to $66K; each line now uses its REAL Aug $ (ETS $4K vs $8.5K budget before). Lower Aug ads raise implied contribution, so implied fixed costs rise +$4K; moving 3PL labor into the $77K 3PL bill adds +$35K. Fixed costs go $386K → $425K/mo; Aug still reproduces −$100K. Company break-even at the Aug mix moves from $1,463K to $1,417K, lower because 3PL no longer scales with revenue. Sensitivity: if all-line ads really had been $66K, fixed would be $478K and break-even $1,371K.

Flag break-even ROAS 2.04 (1 ÷ contribution before ads, 3PL fixed) vs platform ROAS 3.32 (Aug avg) · extra spend modeled at marginal ROAS 2.5: each extra $1 returns ≈ 2.5 × 49.0% − $1 = +$0.22. SG break-even ROAS 2.11 vs 1.69 platform, so SG spend loses money at the margin.
3PL: Aug bill ~$77K (Isaac) vs the old model's $75.1K (L10 labor $34.9K variable + rent/capex/opex $40.1K). Now one monthly $ input, fixed, allocated to non-Amazon lines by revenue share; target $60K saves $17K/mo.
Salary: $1.0M/yr gross − $250K/yr add-back = $62K/mo off general overhead (by revenue share); Isaac's ~$700K/yr net = $58.3K/mo.

Per line after the cost plan (B)

fixed = direct + 3PL ($60K) + overhead − salary cuts, by revenue share

After the cost plan (B)	Rev Oct	Contrib.	Fixed	Profit Oct	Nov	Dec	BE rev Oct	Base A Oct	Δ vs A
Flag (web)	$300K	$80K	$102K	−$22K	−$22K	−$22K	$381K	−$53K	+$31K
Safety Gear (web)	$246K	$103K	$104K	−$1K	−$1K	−$1K	$248K	−$26K	+$26K
Amazon (all stores)	$210K	$55K	$45K	$10K	$19K	$19K	$170K	−$4K	+$14K
Wholesale (all stores)	$175K	$41K	$46K	−$6K	−$6K	−$6K	$199K	−$19K	+$13K
Tea (ETS web)	$49K	$22K	$17K	$5K	$5K	$5K	$38K	$0K	+$5K
NLE (web)	$61K	$36K	$22K	$14K	$14K	$14K	$38K	$8K	+$6K
LED (web)	$26K	$9K	$8K	$1K	$1K	$1K	$22K	−$1K	+$2K
Walmart	$12K	$0K	$3K	−$3K	−$3K	−$3K	$229K	−$4K	+$1K
Company	$1,078K	$345K	$346K	−$1K	$7K	$7K	$1,081K	−$99K	+$98K

Sell ETS / NLE / LED?

Sell? (Oct, after cost plan)	Revenue	Contribution	Direct fixed	Shared fixed	Line profit	If sold: $0 removed	If sold: shared removed
Tea (ETS web)	$49K	$22K	$4K	$13K	$5K	−$18K	−$5K
NLE (web)	$61K	$36K	$7K	$14K	$14K	−$28K	−$14K
LED (web)	$26K	$9K	$2K	$5K	$1K	−$7K	−$1K
ETS + NLE + LED	$136K	$66K	$13K	$33K	$20K	−$53K	−$20K

Contribution before fixed costs, recomputed on the Aug basis after recalibration: NLE $33K, ETS $22K, LED $8K/mo (Isaac's earlier estimates: $32K / $15K / $8.5K; ETS is higher now because real Aug ads were $3.7K, not the $8.5K budget, and 3PL labor moved to fixed). All three are profitable after their share of overhead, so selling costs $53K/mo if no shared overhead goes with them and still $20K/mo even if all $33K of their shared 3PL/overhead is cut. A sale only pays if the price beats that lost profit. Proceeds and ETS's Nov–Dec tea season aren't modeled.

1 · Break-even by month: company

BE revenue = fixed costs ÷ (GM % − variable %) · EST calibrated to Aug

	Oct 2026	Nov 2026	Dec 2026
Budget revenue REAL	$1,729K	$1,777K	$1,626K
Realistic revenue EST	$1,086K	$1,118K	$1,118K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$1,415K	$1,421K	$1,421K
Break-even revenue @ budget GM	$1,768K	$1,676K	$1,629K
Realistic − break-even	−$329K	−$304K	−$304K
Profit / loss at realistic revenue EST
@ Aug GM 57.0%	−$99K	−$91K	−$91K
@ budget GM	−$164K (51.0%)	−$142K (52.5%)	−$134K (53.3%)
@ Aug GM +2 / −2 pts	−$77K / −$121K	−$68K / −$113K	−$68K / −$113K
GM % needed to break even	66.1%	65.2%	65.2%

Budget vs realistic vs break-even revenue

Company fixed costs $425K/mo EST · variable 27.0% of revenue · Aug GM 57.0% at the realistic mix → contribution margin 30.1%.

At ~$1.09–1.12M a month the company needs about $99K/month of profit improvement to break even: roughly +9.1 GM pts, or $99K of fixed cost, or +$329K revenue, or a mix (§3). Budget revenue won't be hit (Isaac), so the lines below plan on realistic revenue.

2 · Break-even by business line

four lines, each with its own targets · lines don't overlap and add up to the company

Flag (web)

Shopify-USF web only; its Amazon and wholesale sales are in those lines

Aug GM 62.3% (CB-calibrated) · ads 24.4% of web revenue · AOV $105 (CIM) · fixed share $127K/mo EST

	Oct 2026	Nov 2026	Dec 2026
Budget revenue REAL	$453K	$467K	$429K
Realistic revenue EST	$300K	$300K	$300K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$515K	$515K	$515K
Break-even revenue @ budget GM	$578K	$559K	$541K
Realistic − break-even	−$215K	−$215K	−$215K
Profit / loss at realistic revenue EST
@ Aug GM 62.3%	−$53K	−$53K	−$53K
@ budget GM	−$61K (59.6%)	−$59K (60.4%)	−$56K (61.1%)
@ Aug GM +2 / −2 pts	−$47K / −$59K	−$47K / −$59K	−$47K / −$59K
GM % needed to break even	79.9%	79.9%	79.9%

r14 Deep dive to understand why USF sales were significantly down in July IM · overdue due 09-14 · In Progress
r26 Get Social budget from Josh, and update CTV and Social budgets according to new … AS · overdue due 09-22 · Not Started
r97 Sell off existing inventory for the rest of 2026 (current stock is sufficient). … CW · due Nov · Researching

Safety Gear (web)

Shopify-DSG web only

Aug GM 56.7% · ads 9.3% · SG ROAS 1.69 (Sep 12–18) vs 3.05 target · fixed share $123K/mo EST

	Oct 2026	Nov 2026	Dec 2026
Budget revenue REAL	$366K	$322K	$292K
Realistic revenue EST	$254K	$254K	$254K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$323K	$323K	$323K
Break-even revenue @ budget GM	$485K	$458K	$433K
Realistic − break-even	−$69K	−$69K	−$69K
Profit / loss at realistic revenue EST
@ Aug GM 56.7%	−$26K	−$26K	−$26K
@ budget GM	−$59K (44.0%)	−$55K (45.5%)	−$51K (47.0%)
@ Aug GM +2 / −2 pts	−$21K / −$31K	−$21K / −$31K	−$21K / −$31K
GM % needed to break even	67.0%	67.0%	67.0%

r60 Obtain a ROAS breakdown report comparing Custom vs. Retail advertising spend and… [AS] · overdue due 09-02 · Blocked/Issue
r71 Incrase Bing Oct budget to 10-13K at overall 2.5 ROAS AS · due ASAP · In Progress
r67 Research additional B2B advertising avenues and review Amos opportunity list. - … IM / AS · overdue due 09-14 · Not Started

Amazon (all stores)

Isaac: ~$200–220K/mo, higher Nov/Dec (+15% default)

Targets: margin after fees 30% (Isaac; confirm basis) · TACoS 4.6% (slide 12 July) · Buy Box % TBD · fixed share $57K/mo EST

	Oct 2026	Nov 2026	Dec 2026
Budget revenue REAL	$336K	$309K	$258K
Realistic revenue EST	$210K	$242K	$242K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$224K	$224K	$224K
Break-even revenue @ budget GM	$214K	$199K	$201K
Realistic − break-even	−$14K	$17K	$17K
Profit / loss at realistic revenue EST
@ Aug GM 59.2%	−$4K	$4K	$4K
@ budget GM	−$1K (60.4%)	$12K (62.4%)	$12K (62.1%)
@ Aug GM +2 / −2 pts	$1K / −$8K	$9K / $0K	$9K / $0K
GM % needed to break even	60.9%	57.3%	57.3%

r93 Audit Amazon margins JG · overdue due 09-17 · In Progress
r69 Create Amazon Listings for custom hats listings x 3 (Pyramax, Rugged Blue) - min… JG · overdue due 09-14 · In Progress

Wholesale (all stores)

Isaac: ~$150–200K/mo; B2B: lower margin, higher AOV

Targets: GM 42.4% (slide 12) · AOV TBD · orders/month TBD · freight/other 20.0% · fixed share $58K/mo EST

	Oct 2026	Nov 2026	Dec 2026
Budget revenue REAL	$287K	$282K	$271K
Realistic revenue EST	$175K	$175K	$175K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$258K	$258K	$258K
Break-even revenue @ budget GM	$336K	$325K	$316K
Realistic − break-even	−$83K	−$83K	−$83K
Profit / loss at realistic revenue EST
@ Aug GM 42.4%	−$19K	−$19K	−$19K
@ budget GM	−$28K (37.1%)	−$27K (37.8%)	−$26K (38.3%)
@ Aug GM +2 / −2 pts	−$15K / −$22K	−$15K / −$22K	−$15K / −$22K
GM % needed to break even	53.0%	53.0%	53.0%

No open action linked (wholesale targets not set)

3 · Levers: $ profit per month

at realistic revenue and Aug GM · EST · lever sizes are inputs in the workbook

Company lever	Oct	Nov	Dec
+1 pt gross margin	+$11K	+$11K	+$11K
Mix shift to higher-margin items (share × margin gap)	+$9K	+$9K	+$9K
AOV +$ per order, orders flat (web lines)	+$22K	+$22K	+$22K
Cut ad spend by the input share (revenue lost at platform ROAS; Amazon at 3.0)	−$9K	−$9K	−$9K
Net shipping to target (web lines)	+$9K	+$9K	+$9K
Fixed cost cut $10K/mo company (allocated by fixed share)	+$10K	+$10K	+$10K
Fixed cost cut $25K/mo company	+$25K	+$25K	+$25K
Fixed cost cut $50K/mo company	+$50K	+$50K	+$50K
Revenue +10%	+$33K	+$33K	+$33K
Revenue −10%	−$33K	−$33K	−$33K
Gap to break even (company)	−$99K	−$91K	−$91K

Mix/AOV: August improved on higher-AOV, higher-margin items (flagpoles and kits, per Isaac). We have no category margin table on the box yet, so mix is parametric: 10% of revenue moving to items with +8 pts margin (+0.8 pt blended); AOV +$10 on a $105 base with orders flat. Ad cut: Flag PPC runs at a 3.32 platform ROAS, so cutting it loses money; SG at 1.69 ROAS saves money. Platform ROAS overstates by ~1.3–1.7×, so re-check with blended ROAS.

By line (Oct)

Oct, $/month	Flag	Safety Gear	Amazon	Wholesale	Tea	NLE	LED
+1 pt gross margin	$3K	$3K	$2K	$2K	$0K	$1K	$0K
Mix shift to higher-margin items	$2K	$2K	$2K	$1K	$0K	$0K	$0K
AOV +$ per order, orders flat	$7K	$9K	—	—	$2K	$3K	$1K
Cut ad spend by the input share	−$9K	$1K	$0K	—	$0K	$0K	$0K
Net shipping to target	$4K	$3K	—	—	$1K	$1K	$0K
Fixed cost cut $10K/mo company	$3K	$3K	$1K	$1K	$0K	$1K	$0K
Fixed cost cut $25K/mo company	$7K	$7K	$3K	$3K	$1K	$2K	$1K
Fixed cost cut $50K/mo company	$15K	$14K	$7K	$7K	$2K	$3K	$1K
Revenue +10%	$7K	$10K	$5K	$4K	$2K	$3K	$1K
Profit at realistic rev, Oct	−$53K	−$26K	−$4K	−$19K	$0K	$8K	−$1K

4 · Budget vs realistic by month: company · Flag · SG · Amazon · Wholesale

profit goal parameter: break-even and 5% of revenue · EST

Company	Oct	Nov	Dec
Budget revenue REAL	$1,729K	$1,777K	$1,626K
Realistic revenue	$1,086K	$1,118K	$1,118K
Profit: budget rev @ budget GM	−$36K	$5K	−$24K
Profit: budget rev @ Aug GM	$70K	$94K	$46K
Profit: realistic rev @ budget GM	−$164K	−$142K	−$134K
Profit: realistic rev @ Aug GM	−$99K	−$91K	−$91K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$1,415K	$1,421K	$1,421K
GM % needed to break even at realistic rev	66.1%	65.2%	65.2%
Profit goal $ (goal % × realistic rev)	$54K	$56K	$56K
Levers: net shipping fix + mix shift + SG ad cut ($/mo)	$18K	$19K	$19K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to BREAK EVEN ($/mo)	$80K	$72K	$72K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to hit PROFIT GOAL ($/mo)	$135K	$128K	$128K

Flag (web)	Oct	Nov	Dec
Budget revenue REAL	$453K	$467K	$429K
Realistic revenue	$300K	$300K	$300K
Profit: budget rev @ budget GM	−$23K	−$8K	−$2K
Profit: budget rev @ Aug GM	−$11K	$1K	$3K
Profit: realistic rev @ budget GM	−$61K	−$59K	−$56K
Profit: realistic rev @ Aug GM	−$53K	−$53K	−$53K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$515K	$515K	$515K
GM % needed to break even at realistic rev	79.9%	79.9%	79.9%
Profit goal $ (goal % × realistic rev)	$15K	$15K	$15K
Levers: net shipping fix + mix shift ($/mo)	$6K	$6K	$6K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to BREAK EVEN ($/mo)	$47K	$47K	$47K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to hit PROFIT GOAL ($/mo)	$62K	$62K	$62K

Safety Gear (web)	Oct	Nov	Dec
Budget revenue REAL	$366K	$322K	$292K
Realistic revenue	$254K	$254K	$254K
Profit: budget rev @ budget GM	−$49K	−$59K	−$66K
Profit: budget rev @ Aug GM	−$2K	−$23K	−$37K
Profit: realistic rev @ budget GM	−$59K	−$55K	−$51K
Profit: realistic rev @ Aug GM	−$26K	−$26K	−$26K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$323K	$323K	$323K
GM % needed to break even at realistic rev	67.0%	67.0%	67.0%
Profit goal $ (goal % × realistic rev)	$13K	$13K	$13K
Levers: net shipping fix + mix shift + SG ad cut ($/mo)	$6K	$6K	$6K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to BREAK EVEN ($/mo)	$20K	$20K	$20K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to hit PROFIT GOAL ($/mo)	$33K	$33K	$33K

Amazon (all stores)	Oct	Nov	Dec
Budget revenue REAL	$336K	$309K	$258K
Realistic revenue	$210K	$242K	$242K
Profit: budget rev @ budget GM	$21K	$21K	$7K
Profit: budget rev @ Aug GM	$17K	$11K	−$1K
Profit: realistic rev @ budget GM	−$1K	$12K	$12K
Profit: realistic rev @ Aug GM	−$4K	$4K	$4K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$224K	$224K	$224K
GM % needed to break even at realistic rev	60.9%	57.3%	57.3%
Profit goal $ (goal % × realistic rev)	$10K	$12K	$12K
Levers: net shipping fix + mix shift ($/mo)	$2K	$2K	$2K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to BREAK EVEN ($/mo)	$2K	$0K	$0K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to hit PROFIT GOAL ($/mo)	$12K	$6K	$6K

Wholesale (all stores)	Oct	Nov	Dec
Budget revenue REAL	$287K	$282K	$271K
Realistic revenue	$175K	$175K	$175K
Profit: budget rev @ budget GM	−$9K	−$8K	−$8K
Profit: budget rev @ Aug GM	$6K	$5K	$3K
Profit: realistic rev @ budget GM	−$28K	−$27K	−$26K
Profit: realistic rev @ Aug GM	−$19K	−$19K	−$19K
Break-even revenue @ Aug GM	$258K	$258K	$258K
GM % needed to break even at realistic rev	53.0%	53.0%	53.0%
Profit goal $ (goal % × realistic rev)	$9K	$9K	$9K
Levers: net shipping fix + mix shift ($/mo)	$1K	$1K	$1K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to BREAK EVEN ($/mo)	$17K	$17K	$17K
Fixed-cost cut still needed to hit PROFIT GOAL ($/mo)	$26K	$26K	$26K

Reading the scenarios

Flag: Isaac expects ~$500K a month for the whole Flag brand, not the $800K budget. Here Flag web is $300K; Flag's shares of wholesale (~81%) and Amazon (~38%) add ~$220K, so the brand is ≈ $520K. Flag web loses $53K/mo at realistic revenue (fixed share $127K). Its break-even is $515K of web revenue, or 79.9% GM.
Company: shipping fix + mix + SG ad cut ≈ +$18K/mo; the remaining ~$80K/mo must come from fixed costs, more GM points or AOV.
Budget margins (budget file) sit below the Aug CB-calibrated margins on most lines, so the 'budget GM' rows look worse. Confirm the budget's cost basis (open decision).

5 · Break-even calculator

edit any yellow cell; profit and break-even recompute live · presets load scenarios A–D from §0 · defaults = the EST model

Month Preset: GM shift, all lines 0.0 ptsMarginal ROAS on extra ad $

3PL total $/mo Salary cuts, gross $/yr Add-back $/yr Net shipping to 8.8% (web) Mix shift (+0.8 pt on base revenue)Flag AOV +$

Sell ETS / NLE / LEDOverhead removed with the sale $/mo Other fixed-cost cut $/mo Profit goal %

Line	Base revenue $/mo	GM %	Ad spend $/mo	Other var. %	Direct fixed	Shared fixed	Revenue incl. ad/AOV effect	Contribution	Profit	Break-even revenue	BE ROAS	Revenue for goal

Ad spend default = Aug ad % × base revenue. Spend above (or below) the default adds (or loses) revenue at the marginal ROAS (SG capped at its 1.69 platform ROAS, Amazon at 3.0), earning GM − other variable %. Other variable = shipping + payment/marketplace fees; 3PL is now a monthly $ (fixed) allocated to non-Amazon lines by revenue share. Shared fixed = 3PL share + general overhead share (Aug revenue) − salary cuts − other cut. Selling a line removes its revenue, contribution and direct fixed; its shared fixed stays unless entered as overhead removed. BE ROAS = 1 ÷ (GM − other variable %).

6 · Calibration: how the cost base was estimated

ESTIMATE, calibrated to the Aug loss; replace with Crystal's P&L-by-store file

August	Revenue	GM %	GM $	Ads $ (REAL)	Ship + fees $	Var. %	Contribution	Direct fixed	3PL (of $77K)	General SG&A	Fixed total	Aug profit	BE ROAS
Flag (web)	$323K	62.3%	$201K	$79K	$43K	37.7%	$79K	$22K	$29K	$76K	$127K	−$47K	2.04
Safety Gear (web)	$251K	56.7%	$142K	$23K	$23K	18.6%	$95K	$42K	$22K	$59K	$123K	−$28K	2.11
Amazon (all stores)	$214K	59.2%	$126K	$10K	$62K	33.8%	$54K	$6K	$0K	$50K	$57K	−$3K	3.33
Wholesale (all stores)	$150K	42.4%	$64K	$0K	$30K	20.0%	$34K	$9K	$13K	$35K	$58K	−$24K	4.46
Tea (ETS web)	$53K	64.8%	$34K	$4K	$8K	22.8%	$22K	$4K	$5K	$13K	$21K	$1K	2.04
NLE (web)	$58K	66.2%	$39K	$2K	$4K	10.0%	$33K	$7K	$5K	$14K	$26K	$6K	1.68
LED (web)	$22K	47.6%	$11K	$1K	$2K	13.8%	$8K	$2K	$2K	$5K	$9K	−$2K	2.69
Walmart	$13K	49.4%	$6K	$0K	$6K	48.7%	$0K	$0K	$1K	$3K	$4K	−$4K	n/a
Company	$1,084K	57.5%	$623K	$118K	$180K	27.5%	$325K	$93K	$77K	$256K	$425K	−$100K	2.44

Revenue $1,083,943 = CB, deck slide 2 (Isaac: ~$1.1M; the L10 sheet shows $1,049,228 after discount). Wholesale split out of Shopify: USF $122,058 (L10 row 33) + ~$27.9K other stores (EST) ≈ $150K. Amazon $213,599 (slide 2). Web lines = store Shopify minus wholesale.
GM: July settlement GM by line (slide 12), web lines lifted +4.7 pts so the company equals 57.5% (CB basis, Isaac). Amazon: GM 59.2%, fees set so margin after fees = 30% (Isaac; slide 12 shows 43% fees in July: confirm).
Ads (updated Sep 25) = REAL Aug spend by store from the Total Ad Spend sheet, excl. Klaviyo ($11.9K, email platform, left in overhead): Flag $79K (PPC $68.9K + MNTN $5.3K + Meta $3.1K + Pinterest $1.5K), SG $23K, ETS $4K, NLE $2K, LED $1K; Amazon TACoS 4.6% (slide 12, EST) = $10K. Total $118K vs $123K in the prior model. Isaac's $66K ≈ Flag PPC alone ($68.9K vs the $120K Flag PPC budget line).
Other variable = slide 12 ratio by store (shipping + payment fees; wholesale 20.0%). 3PL (updated): one monthly bill, Aug ~$77K (Isaac), treated as fixed and allocated to non-Amazon lines by revenue share. It replaces 3PL labor $34.9K (variable, 4.0% of revenue) + rent/capex/opex $40.1K = $75.1K; the $1.9K difference comes out of the general residual. Total variable 27.5%.
Fixed = contribution $325K − Aug profit (−$100K) = $425K/month (was $386K: +$4K from lower real ads, +$35K from 3PL labor now inside the fixed 3PL bill). Split: direct SG&A from slide 12 ($93K), 3PL $77K, general SG&A residual ($256K, incl. payroll) allocated by revenue share, fixed for the quarter.
Not modeled yet: refunds (9.7% of Aug sales in the L10 sheet). If the $1.1M is before refunds, part of the loss is refunds, not fixed cost: the P&L file will settle this.

7 · Other lines

realistic = avg of Aug and Sep pace (flat; no seasonality yet) · EST

	Oct: rev · profit · BE	Nov: rev · profit · BE	Dec: rev · profit · BE
Tea (ETS web) fixed $21K	$49K · $0K · BE $50K	$49K · $0K · BE $50K	$49K · $0K · BE $50K
NLE (web) fixed $26K	$61K · $8K · BE $47K	$61K · $8K · BE $47K	$61K · $8K · BE $47K
LED (web) fixed $9K	$26K · −$1K · BE $28K	$26K · −$1K · BE $28K	$26K · −$1K · BE $28K
Walmart fixed $4K	$12K · −$4K · BE $688K	$12K · −$4K · BE $688K	$12K · −$4K · BE $688K

ETS: the budget triples Oct→Dec (tea holiday season); the realistic row is flat at run-rate, so edit Nov/Dec in the calculator or workbook. Walmart has negative contribution (other variable 48.7%, slide 12), so it has no break-even at current costs.

8 · Actions

S&OP tracker, read Sep 25 REAL

open (of 93)

overdue

due next 7 days

no real date

Overdue / open by section

SG8 / 16

USF4 / 13

Inventory/Other3 / 11

ETS3 / 8

NLE3 / 6

LED1 / 2

Amazon1 / 1

r16USF · Explore advertising and direct outreach avenues for Govern… [AS] / [JG] · due 08-07
r35ETS · Insrease Sept PPC spend to $8,500 ($6k original + $2,500 t… AS · due 09-01
r105Inventory/Other · Try to sell inventory back to suppliers, distributors, com… CW / JG · due 09-01
r107Inventory/Other · *provide Angela list of past customers who have purchased … IM · due 09-01
r60SG · Obtain a ROAS breakdown report comparing Custom vs. Retail… [AS] · due 09-02
r80NLE · Scale PPC budget from $1,500 up to $10K during Q4 peak, fo… CF / Anthony · due 09-02
r61SG · Provide liquidator details of main excess inventory items IM · due 09-03
r64SG · Ask Josh if he can do social for Custom Safety Gear - we h… IM · due 09-10
r14USF · Deep dive to understand why USF sales were significantly d… IM · due 09-14
r18USF · Look into free gift with purchase sometime in september (i… CW · due 09-14
r67SG · Research additional B2B advertising avenues and review Amo… IM / AS · due 09-14
r68SG · Evaluate converting the Safety B2C website to heavily feat… AS / Amos / IM · due 09-14
r69SG · Create Amazon Listings for custom hats listings x 3 (Pyram… JG · due 09-14
r70SG · Ask Channel factory about custom orders for MTN/CTV IM/AS · due 09-14
r82NLE · Try to sell inventory back to suppliers, distributors, com… CW / JG · due 09-14
r103Inventory/Other · How much of inventory can be sold CW · due 09-14
r72SG · REview oct email performance, determine if 50K is a more … AS · due 09-17
r86NLE · Reactivate MNTN - Monitor performance AS · due 09-17
r90LED · Ensure no free shipping on site CW · due 09-17
r93Amazon · Audit Amazon margins JG · due 09-17
r44ETS · Educate 3PL to make them aware of new items and speadily p… JG / CW · due 09-20
r26USF · Get Social budget from Josh, and update CTV and Social bud… AS · due 09-22
r49ETS · Transition PPC management to Josh AS · due 09-22

9 · Last closed months: July and August

reds only

August, company

≈ −$100K

net loss on ~$1.1M sales, ~57–58% GM (Isaac; CB basis)

August sales vs budget

$1,084K

vs $1,646K budget (66%) · CB slide 2

August margin vs budget

~57.5%

vs 50.2% budget (CB basis; GF's 51% not used)

July · Amazon

$20K

contribution after direct SG&A, 8.7% (slide 12)

July · Walmart

$0K

contribution after direct SG&A, 0.6% (slide 12)

July · Wholesale

$11K

contribution after direct SG&A, 12.4% (slide 12)